miércoles, 26 de diciembre de 2012

Recommended: On rockets and ceasefires

"For conflict pauses of different durations (i.e., periods of time when no one is killed on either side), we show here the percentage of times from the Second Intifada in which Israelis ended the period of nonviolence by killing one or more Palestinians (black), the percentage of times that Palestinians ended the period of nonviolence by killing Israelis (grey), and the percentage of times that both sides killed on the same day (white). Virtually all periods of nonviolence lasting more than a week were ended when the Israelis killed Palestinians first. We include here the data from all pause durations that actually occurred.
Thus, a systematic pattern does exist: it is overwhelmingly Israel, not Palestine, that kills first following a lull. Indeed, it is virtually always Israel that kills first after a lull lasting more than a week."

Nancy Kanwisher - Reigniting Violence: How Do Ceasefires End? (2009)

"In doing the analysis on the 2011 numbers, I took data on Palestinian projectile launches and Palestinian casualties from Israeli projectile launches and analyzed them to understand the relationship between the two. Here, let’s look at the same for the first nine months of 2012. In the chart the red line signifies Palestinian casualties, which are injuries or deaths, as a result of Israeli fire in the Gaza strip.

The picture that emerges from all of this can be summed up as follows:

1) the bulk of projectile fire from Gaza occurs as part of peaks or periodic spikes.
2) These spikes are invariably preceded by significant Palestinian causalities caused by Israeli fire.
3) Not all dramatic spikes in Palestinian casualties result in increased projectile fire from Gaza.

This tells us that, largely, the various factions in Gaza are restraining themselves and are not responding to every Israeli escalation. However, when members of militant factions outside of Hamas like the Popular Resistance Committee (PRC) and Islamic Jihad are targeted and killed, the factions then respond as was the case in moments 3 and 7."

The Jerusalem Fund - #Israel and #Gaza: Context Behind Projectile Fire (11/2012)

"In 2011, the projectiles fired by the Israeli military into Gaza have been responsible for the death of 108 Palestinians, of which 15 where women or children and the injury of 468 Palestinians of which 143 where women or children. The methods by which these causalities were inflicted by Israeli projectiles breaks down as follows: 57% or 310, were caused by Israeli Aircraft Missile fire, 28% or 150 where from Israeli live ammunition, 11% or 59 were from Israeli tank shells while another 3% or 18 were from Israeli mortar fire. Conversely, rocket fire from Gaza in 2011 has resulted in the death of 3 Israelis.
As you can see in the chart above, increases in the red line, which signifies Palestinian casualties, typically precede increases in the blue line, which signifies launches of projectiles from Gaza. This is particularly evident before the most significant spikes in the blue line. This suggests that Palestinian launches may be explained, in part, as a response to Israeli projectiles which kill or injure Palestinians.

To understand the effect of this, I ran the numbers through a statistical analysis to understand the individual effects one day's Palestinian casualties had on the next day's launches. What I found was that both Palestinian injuries and deaths were significantly and positively correlated with launches. Palestinian deaths from Israeli projectiles into Gaza led to a 22% increase in rocket launches the following day, Palestinian injuries led to an additional 4% increase.

Absent the upsurge of launches that occurs after Palestinian casualties inflicted by Israeli projectiles, projectiles from Gaza are few and far between. The three Israelis who died as a result of Palestinian projectile fire died during periods of upsurge provoked by preceding Israeli projectile fire into Gaza. In fact, 75% of launches from Gaza came during these upsurges provoked by Israeli fire.

Israeli fire into Gaza, however, is not statistically correlated with the previous day's launches.

This suggests that it is the Israelis and not the Palestinians who, through their capacity to actually inflict high casualties with their projectiles, control escalation in cross border dynamics. While all launches from Gaza cannot be explained as responses to Israeli fire, most of them are."

The Jerusalem Fund - Half the story: What @IDFSpokesperson leaves out about #Gaza (2/2012)

Monthly distribution of rockets hit

Monthly distribution of mortar shells

The graphs show that the total number of rocket and mortar attacks shrank from 245 in June to 26 total for July through October, a reduction of 97 percent. Even this was not enough for Israel, which violated the truce by imposing a terror-famine in Gaza for most of these months. But despite these violations, Hamas refrained from launching rockets until Israel definitively cancelled the truce on the night of 4-5 November by sending an Israeli commando squad into Gaza, where it killed six Hamas members. Hamas responded with 30 rockets.

Jim Holstun and Joanna Tinker - Israel’s fabricated rocket crisis

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